“Psychohistory is a fictional science in Isaac Asimov's Foundation universe which combines history, sociology, and mathematical statistics to make general predictions about the future behavior of very large groups of people...” – Wikipedia
Today I read this preprint. The authors are experimenting with predicting how people will react on social media to various news events. Its interesting to see that there are enough people working on this that they have a benchmark to measure against. This is fascinating to me. Can agents be a more powerful prediction tool than something like a voter survey?
Below are some of the references. I include them so you can see the variety and the names. I also want to highlight this paper: Generative agents: Interactive simulacra of human behavior. I comment on it from time to time, and I suspect I will post about it in the future.
Fusing Dynamics Equation: A Social Opinions
Prediction Algorithm with LLM-based Agents
Partial list of references
[10] Mou X, Wei Z, Huang X. Unveiling the truth and facilitating change:
Towards agent-based large-scale social movement simulation. arXiv
preprint arXiv:2402.16333. 2024 Feb 26.
[11] Hu Zuping, He Jianjia, Modeling and Simulation of Online Public
Opinion Evolution Based on Cellular Automata
[12] Gao C, Lan X, Lu Z, Mao J, Piao J, Wang H, Jin D, Li Y. S3: Socialnetwork Simulation System with Large Language Model-Empowered
Agents. Available at SSRN 4607026. 2023 Oct 19.
[13] Park JS, O’Brien J, Cai CJ, Morris MR, Liang P, Bernstein MS. Generative agents: Interactive simulacra of human behavior. InProceedings
of the 36th annual acm symposium on user interface software and
technology 2023 Oct 29 (pp. 1-22).
[14] Chuang YS, Goyal A, Harlalka N, Suresh S, Hawkins R, Yang S, Shah
D, Hu J, Rogers T. Simulating Opinion Dynamics with Networks of
LLM-based Agents. InFindings of the Association for Computational
Linguistics: NAACL 2024 2024 Jun (pp. 3326-3346).
[15] Liu Y, Chen X, Zhang X, Gao X, Zhang J, Yan R. From Skepticism
to Acceptance: Simulating the Attitude Dynamics Toward Fake News.
arXiv preprint arXiv:2403.09498. 2024 Mar 14.
[16] Cooper I, Mondal A, Antonopoulos CG. A SIR model assumption for
the spread of COVID-19 in different
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